Monte Carlo

Run your account a thousand times.

Your equity curve is just one of the paths your edge could have taken. Monte Carlo resamples your trades thousands of times to show the whole range of futures — and the risks hiding in the tails.

Bootstrap & parametric · On accounts and backtests
73%
Prob. hit target
4.2%
Prob. of ruin
$128,400
Median balance
−16.8%
Expected max DD
10,000
Simulations
One curve isn’t the story

What if the same trades came in a different order?

Two accounts with identical stats can feel completely different to trade — one drifts up smoothly, the other nearly blows up first. Monte Carlo reshuffles your trade history thousands of times so you see not just the average, but the bad-luck paths too.

Two methods

Bootstrap and parametric

Resample your actual trades to keep their real shape, or model them from their statistical distribution. Run either — or both — on a live account or an uploaded backtest.

  • Bootstrap — resamples your real trade results
  • Parametric — models trades from their distribution
  • Choose simulation count and horizon
The outcome fan

See every path at once

A fan chart plots the spread of simulated equity curves with median and percentile bands — alongside a drawdown distribution and a histogram of final balances.

  • Fan of equity paths with median & percentiles
  • Drawdown distribution across all runs
  • Histogram of final balances
The numbers that matter

Probabilities, not promises

Every run distils down to the questions you actually care about — framed as odds across thousands of simulated futures.

Probability of hitting target

How often you reach your goal across all runs.

Probability of ruin

How often the account hits your blow-up threshold.

Expected & median balance

Where you land on average — and at the midpoint.

Expected max drawdown

The drawdown to brace for, plus how often it’s exceeded.

Plan for the path you didn’t expect.

Simulate thousands of futures for your account or backtest. Free to start.

Run a simulation